Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.463681 0.534775 0.611642 0.700743 0.800986 0.910082 1.037594
2025-06-01 0.369645 0.465052 0.575975 0.713746 0.879496 1.071662 1.310440
2025-06-08 0.294867 0.403268 0.538286 0.717123 0.945862 1.226542 1.594647
2025-06-15 0.249494 0.369621 0.529332 0.753918 1.057712 1.450004 1.989705
2025-06-22 0.194393 0.313100 0.481932 0.734212 1.095082 1.585049 2.291148
2025-06-29 0.154750 0.270757 0.446997 0.726186 1.147220 1.746224 2.647101
2025-07-06 0.122167 0.232412 0.411303 0.711425 1.187750 1.896284 3.005598
2025-07-13 0.103706 0.213237 0.402046 0.735645 1.289714 2.146768 3.536281
2025-07-20 0.085158 0.189725 0.381438 0.738250 1.358148 2.354431 4.025226
2025-07-27 0.072229 0.173771 0.371119 0.756665 1.454785 2.616509 4.625008
2025-08-03 0.061628 0.159924 0.362124 0.775968 1.555307 2.895205 5.278294
2025-08-10 0.048711 0.137560 0.332144 0.751073 1.573923 3.038532 5.722302
2025-08-17 0.037082 0.115077 0.298070 0.714220 1.569197 3.147698 6.131840
2025-08-24 0.030025 0.101744 0.281004 0.709364 1.625452 3.372302 6.766126
2025-08-31 0.024008 0.089105 0.262657 0.698538 1.668553 3.577834 7.387223
2025-09-07 0.020749 0.083405 0.260035 0.722875 1.788016 3.940802 8.331800
2025-09-14 0.015995 0.070999 0.237024 0.694940 1.791782 4.079151 8.867011
2025-09-21 0.012678 0.061963 0.220748 0.680305 1.822759 4.274865 9.530308
2025-09-28 0.009915 0.053574 0.203964 0.660939 1.839943 4.443671 10.155230
2025-10-05 0.008546 0.050145 0.201403 0.679228 1.948699 4.815513 11.218928
2025-10-12 0.007018 0.045180 0.192510 0.678138 2.009979 5.090733 12.106385
2025-10-19 0.006005 0.042085 0.189102 0.692382 2.111820 5.464915 13.230357
2025-10-26 0.005164 0.039366 0.186277 0.707927 2.219157 5.861186 14.431269